AWOC Instructional Component

IC Winter 7: Monitoring System Evolution

General Information

Estimated IC Completion Time

3 hours

Description

This IC provides instruction on how to monitor system evolution using real time data and model information to produce short term forecasts and warning updates for winter weather. The process discussed in this IC involves interpreting the accuracy of model analysis, radar precipitation estimates, snow spotter information, surface observations, and web cams.

Testing Procedures

Testing for Instructional Components (IC) lessons is provided to the student using the NWS Learning Management System (LMS). If testing is required, the test must be successfully completed in order to complete the lessons. A score of at least 70% on the exam is required to successfully complete each lesson.

Lessons

Lesson 1: Monitoring Model Accuracy
Description	This lesson describes the benefits of diagnosis of observations contrasted with some of the pitfalls of numerical weather prediction for winter weather. Pete Banacos (Forecaster, NWS APX), and Dan Bikos (CIRA) produced this lesson. Note: As the lesson proceeds, click the "show URL" button when it is active to take the interactive quizzes.
Estimated Lesson Completion Time	45 min.	Module Type	Articulate Presenter Module
Resources
Exercises
Review Sheets & Hand Outs	IC 7.1 student handout (7.57 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Lesson Links	NOAA employees should access this module via the NWS Learning Center as they will need to complete the exam and survey in the LMS to receive credit for completion. All others wishing to take this lesson should use the follow link(s): IC 7.1: Monitoring Model Accuracy

Lesson 2: WSR-88D Winter Weather Precipitation Estimation
Description	Part 1 of this lesson illustrates where the radar overestimates precipitation due to various situations such as: overshooting, brightbanding, sub-beam evaporation, and horizontal drift. The lesson also shows how precipitation particle shape affects radar reflectivity. Part 2 of this lesson shows how the process of analyzing radar errors due to overshooting and bright-banding are exemplified via a case study. Jim LaDue (NWS WDTB) produced this lesson.
Estimated Lesson Completion Time	60 min.	Module Type	Articulate Presenter Modules
Resources
Exercises	None.
Review Sheets & Hand Outs	IC 7.2 Part 1 student handout (11.3 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat). IC 7.2 Part 2 student handout (5.53 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Lesson Links	NOAA employees should access this module via the NWS Learning Center as they will need to complete the exam and survey in the LMS to receive credit for completion. All others wishing to take this lesson should use the follow link(s): IC 7.2 Part 1: WSR-88D Winter Weather Precipitation Estimation IC 7.2 Part 2: WSR-88D Winter Weather Precipitation Estimation - Case Study

Lesson 3: Effective Use of Spotters and Webcams
Description	This lesson, produced by Carl Dierking (SOO, NWS JNU), shows how to identify spotter and webcam sources and their associated strengths and weaknesses. The lesson also discusses the considerations in using these types of uncontrolled data sources and the process of how forecasters might use this information in the warning process by improving situational awareness.
Estimated Lesson Completion Time	15 min.	Module Type	Articulate Presenter Module
Resources
Exercises
Review Sheets & Hand Outs	IC 7.3 student handout (5.55 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Lesson Links	NOAA employees should access this module via the NWS Learning Center as they will need to complete the exam and survey in the LMS to receive credit for completion. All others wishing to take this lesson should use the follow link(s): IC 7.3: Effective Use of Spotters and Webcams

Lesson 4: Diagnosing Unexpected Precipitation Areas
Description	This lesson demonstrates a methodology for recognizing and responding quickly and decisively to unexpected precipitation by improving the forecast. Produced by Bruce Smith (SOO, NWS APX), the lesson emphasizes the role of using observational data utilizing effective diagnosis and short term forecasting techniques. After a methodology of 5 basic steps is presented, a case study is shown to apply the methodology.
Estimated Lesson Completion Time	30 min.	Module Type	Articulate Presenter Module
Resources
Exercises
Review Sheets & Hand Outs	IC 7.4 student handout (9.46 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Lesson Links	NOAA employees should access this module via the NWS Learning Center as they will need to complete the exam and survey in the LMS to receive credit for completion. All others wishing to take this lesson should use the follow link(s): IC 7.4: Diagnosing Unexpected Precipitation Areas

Contact

Email

Winter AWOC IC 7 Development Team

Telephone

(405) 325-3004

Web site owner: Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB)