AWOC Instructional Component

IC Winter 6:   Synoptic/Mesoscale Forecasting of Precipitation Type and Amount

 

General Information

Estimated IC Completion Time
3 hrs. 30 min.
Description
The IC provides latest science and techniques for forecasting precipitation type and amounts.
Testing Procedures
Testing for Instructional Components (IC) lessons is provided to the student using the NWS Learning Management System (LMS). If testing is required, the test must be successfully completed in order to complete the lessons. A score of at least 70% on the exam is required to successfully complete each lesson.

Lessons

Lesson 1:

Introduction to the Top-Down Methodology

Description
The lesson, narrated by Randy Graham (SLC), provides an overview of the top-down methodology in forecasting precipitation type. This method helps forecasters intelligently assess observed and model sounding data in determining p-type because there are higher resolution model data to analyze and implicit microphysical concepts to consider on all levels in the atmosphere. The methodology addressed in this lesson considers operational issues such as assessing the potential for heterogeneous nucleation, impacts of warm layers, near surface (wet-bulb) effects, seeder-feeder mechanism, and precipitation intensity.
Estimated Lesson Completion Time
45 min. Module Type
Articulate Presenter Module
Resources
Exercises
IC 6.1 jobsheet (80 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Review Sheets & Hand Outs
IC 6.1 student handout (80 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Lesson Links
NOAA employees should access this module via the NWS Learning Center as they will need to complete the exam and survey in the LMS to receive credit for completion. All others wishing to take this lesson should use the follow link(s):

IC 6.1: Introduction to the Top-Down Methodology

Lesson 2:

Strengths and Weaknesses of Precipitation Type Algorithms

Description
This lesson, developed by Randy Graham (SLC) and Mike Evans (BGM), describes the top 4 precipitation type algorithms used in the field: Baldwin, Ramer (Part 1); Bourgouin Method and Partial Thickness (Part 2). The lesson describes the strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm. From this lesson, forecasters will be able to assess the validity of algorithm output in various forecast situations.
Estimated Lesson Completion Time
60 min. Module Type
Articulate Presenter Modules
Resources
Exercises
IC 6.2 jobsheet (80 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Review Sheets & Hand Outs
Lesson Links
NOAA employees should access this module via the NWS Learning Center as they will need to complete the exam and survey in the LMS to receive credit for completion. All others wishing to take this lesson should use the follow link(s):
Lesson 3:

Using Ensembles in Winter Weather Forecasting

Description
This lesson, developed by Richard Grumm (CTP), describes why forecasters should use ensemble forecast information in the outlook, watch, and warning phases of winter storms. The lesson illustrates conceptually and via case studies how to recognize uncertainty/high probability outcomes in EPS data. A section has been added in 2008 to discuss the state of current ensemble systems.
Estimated Lesson Completion Time
30 min. Module Type
Articulate Presenter Module
Resources
Exercises
IC 6.3 jobsheet (80 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Review Sheets & Hand Outs
IC 6.3 student handout (80 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Lesson Links
NOAA employees should access this module via the NWS Learning Center as they will need to complete the exam and survey in the LMS to receive credit for completion. All others wishing to take this lesson should use the follow link(s):

IC 6.3: Using Ensembles in Winter Weather Forecasting

Lesson 4:

The Ingredients-Based method for forecasting heavy precipitation

Description
This lesson, narrated by Ken Harding (ABR), describes the main components in the ingredients method for forecasting heavy precipitation. It also shows the student how to display the various ingredients and how you can combine the ingredients to produce a conceptual model for heavy precipitation.
Estimated Lesson Completion Time
15 min. Module Type
Articulate Presenter Module
Resources
Exercises
IC 6.4 jobsheet (80 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Review Sheets & Hand Outs
IC 6.4 student handout (80 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Lesson Links
NOAA employees should access this module via the NWS Learning Center as they will need to complete the exam and survey in the LMS to receive credit for completion. All others wishing to take this lesson should use the follow link(s):

IC 6.4: The Ingredients-Based Method for Forecasting Heavy Precipitation

Lesson 5:

Snowfall Forecasting

Description
This lesson, narrated by Dan Cobb (GRR) and Dan Petersen (HPC), describes how to diagnose and convert quantitative precipitation forecasts to actual snowfall amounts. Part 1 covers snow ratio basics, snow ratio climatologies, and reviews snow microphysics. Part 2 discusses snow production, including the role of vertical motion in producing snow crystals of different densities, how to modify snowfall accumulation rates based on sub-cloud and surface conditions, and how to convert NWP forecasts of equivalent liquid precipitation to snowfall. Additionally, the authors present two diagnostic tools for assessing snow ratio and snowfall.
Estimated Lesson Completion Time
50 min. Module Type
Articulate Presenter Module
Resources
Exercises
IC 6.5 jobsheet (80 MB PDF file requires Adobe Acrobat).
Review Sheets & Hand Outs
Lesson Links
NOAA employees should access this module via the NWS Learning Center as they will need to complete the exam and survey in the LMS to receive credit for completion. All others wishing to take this lesson should use the follow link(s):

Contact

Email
Winter AWOC IC 6 Development Team.
Telephone
(405) 573-3350